Both teams come into this series a bit disappointed and desperately needing a big one. The Rangers opened the year 4-2, winning back-to-back road series against Philly and Baltimore, then came home and fell flat on their face getting swept by the Reds. They scored 32 runs in those first six games — over five per game — and then managed just four total against Cincinnati. Average one a game. The offense at home has been bad for years now, and with elite Seattle pitching coming to town, there’s little hope that changes this series.
The Mariners sit at 4-6 and two games back in the division. Coming off an ALCS appearance and nearly a World Series berth, expectations are high in Seattle — and I hate to say it, but that has always historically led to disappointment for them. Both clubs need this series badly.
Game 1 · Monday, April 6th · 7:05 PM CST
Logan Gilbert vs. Jacob deGrom
Texas hitters are slashing just .185/.246/.331 against Gilbert overall, and the individual matchups back that up — Seager at 4-26 (.246/.355/.536) is really the only Ranger with a decent statline against him. Outside of Corey, this lineup has been largely quiet against Logan. That said, if we look specifically at Gilbert’s road starts against Texas — 7 games, 2-1, 3.82 ERA — he’s been good, but the Rangers have fared better against him at home. This feels like a game that needs a big Seager night.
On the other side, deGrom comes in with Seattle hitters slashing .231/.333/.423 against him. The concern is the guys who have his number — Julio Rodriguez owns him (.455/.500/.727), J.P. Crawford is hitting .300/.364/.600, and Mitch Garver is 2-2 with 2 home runs. This is going to be a game of limiting mistakes. Seattle has a few guys who, if Jacob hangs something, can hit it out. In a game with two aces going, that can be the difference maker. deGrom has to be clean.
Game 2 · Tuesday, April 7th · 7:05 PM CST
George Kirby vs. Nathan Eovaldi
This in a shocking twist may be the toughest matchup of the series for Texas. Rangers hitters are slashing a brutal .222/.252/.283 against Kirby, and the top of the order has been useless — Nimmo, Langford, and Seager are a combined 3-for-33 against him with no extra base hits. That’s your 1-2-3. The bright spots are Ezequiel Duran (7-13 with a double) and Andrew McCutchen (3-6 with a homer), but this is a really tough draw.
Eovaldi comes in at 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA — through two starts he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He’s got to figure something out here. Seattle hitters are slashing .195/.246/.327 against him, but Cal Raleigh is 4-13 with a double and a homer, and J-Rod is 7-18 with a double and a home run. If Eovaldi can keep the ball in the yard against those two, that would go a long way. The Rangers are going to need the offense to bail him out or Nate to find something he hasn’t had yet this season.
Game 3 · Wednesday, April 8th · 1:35 PM CST
Bryan Woo vs. Mackenzie Gore
Texas hitters are hitting .230/.269/.365 against Woo, with Seager going 6-9 with a double, 2 homers, and 3 walks — he’s the guy again. Ezequiel Duran is 2-4 as well. Gore comes in at 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA and has held Seattle to just .167/.186/.238. J.P. Crawford is 2-6 with a homer against him — the one name to watch — but otherwise Gore has owned this lineup. He needs to continue that Wednesday.
This feels like a series where runs are going to be at a premium across all three games. Both rotations are legitimate, and the team that scratches out a few key hits and limits big mistakes is going to win this thing.
Keys to the Series
The deGrom start in Game 1 is huge — coming off a sweep, it’s critical he locks in and gives the Rangers a chance right out of the gate.
Eovaldi has been rough and needs to turn a corner in Game 2, because the Rangers offense is going to struggle against Kirby.
Game 3 is yet again a rough spot but I think it may be the rangers best chance against one of these starters oddly enough. With that being said this may be our best spot and Gore has the numbers to back it up — he needs to stay sharp against a Seattle lineup that’s been struggling.
On offense, we need Corey Seager to be massive this series. He’s the one guy with a pulse against both Gilbert and Woo, and this lineup desperately needs him to wake up.
Wyatt Langford also needs to find something — he’s been ice cold this year, he is still hitting the ball hard which should lead to production soon, but it needs to be like today soon.
Who’s Hot
Seattle: Brendan Donovan (.370/.485/.667, 2 HR)
Dominic Canzone (5-19, 2 HR, 1 2B)
Randy Arozarena (10-34, 3 2Bs, 8 BB)
Cole Young (10-36, 2 2Bs, 2 HR, 1 3B)
Texas:
Jake Burger (12-37, 3 2Bs, 2 HR)
Brandon Nimmo (14-36, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB)
Evan Carter (7-26, 3 2Bs, 5 BB)
Prediction: Mariners Take 2 of 3
Monday comes down to whether deGrom can limit the mistakes against a Seattle lineup with some dangerous bats — one bad pitch to J-Rod or Crawford and it could flip the game. Tuesday feels like an uphill battle with Kirby on the mound and Eovaldi still searching for answers — this is Seattle’s game to lose. Wednesday is the Rangers’ best shot — Gore has dominated this lineup and the afternoon day game at Globe Life sets up well. If Texas is going to salvage a win, circle Wednesday.
Bullpen Usage via RotoWire
Seattle
Texas
I am nervous that Mitch Garver will have a big time HR in this series
